Software’s Rebound Faces a Reckoning as Palantir and Salesforce Stumble
Two Bellwethers, One Warning Sign
Palantir and Salesforce are flashing trouble, and together they are testing whether software’s comeback has any real footing. Palantir slid to a one-year low on Monday and kept drifting lower into Tuesday, heading toward a fifth consecutive losing session. Salesforce, meanwhile, managed a modest uptick — enough, perhaps, to break a brutal 14-day skid that ranks as the longest losing streak in the company’s history.
Even so, neither chart inspires much confidence.
Palantir: Bulls Need a Quick Recovery
For Palantir, everything hinges on the $125 mark, which once formed the floor of its prior trading range. To make the case that the recent breakdown was merely a “bear trap” — a false move lower that ultimately forces sellers to buy back in — bulls would need the stock to climb back above that level fast.
So far, that hasn’t happened. Instead, the stock keeps struggling to lift off its lows. Compounding the concern, the 200-day moving average has turned downward, while the relative strength index has yet to fall far enough to signal a meaningful rebound. And because oversold readings tend to pay off only when the broader trend is still climbing — which Palantir’s clearly is not — the usual “buy the dip” logic looks shaky here. Notably, the company keeps stacking up major government and enterprise contracts, yet that fundamental momentum hasn’t steadied the chart.
Salesforce: A Slower Version of the Same Story
Salesforce is sinking along a similar path, just more gradually. The stock recently carved out fresh three-year lows, and its 40-week moving average — essentially the weekly counterpart to the 200-day line — is now sloping lower.
Looking ahead, the next plausible support sits somewhere between $125 and $130. Yet even that zone comes with a caveat: if weekly momentum drops below the oversold threshold as the stock reaches that range, it would mark a four-year low in that gauge, making any bounce all the more suspect. Underneath the price action, the company continues to push hard on AI — from its $60 billion revenue target and expanded AI partnerships to its Agentforce-driven CRM strategy.
The Familiar Trap
This is precisely the pattern software investors have run into before. In a genuine downtrend, rallies tend to fizzle, dip buyers get burned, and yesterday’s support hardens into tomorrow’s resistance.
The broader group offers little relief, either. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has tumbled roughly 13% this month, 17% so far this year, and now trades about 25% below its peak. In other words, the sector’s recovery attempt was already losing steam well before the latest AI-driven sell-off arrived.
The Bottom Line
Ultimately, the verdict comes down to a few key levels. Palantir must reclaim $125, and Salesforce needs to defend the $125–$130 band. Until buyers achieve one or the other, software’s rebound stays stuck in limbo — waiting on a verdict it hasn’t yet earned.
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