J.P. Morgan Forecasts Weight-Loss Drug Market at $100 Billion; Eli Lilly Set to Capitalize Significantly.

J.P. Morgan analysts have spotlighted the potential of the weight-loss drug market to reach a staggering $100 billion in annual sales. Eli Lilly (LLY) stands poised to benefit significantly, potentially raking in $50 billion annually from obesity treatments by 2030. This would position the company as a major player in the lucrative sector.

Analysts from the bank have raised their sales projections, identifying Eli Lilly and Denmark-based Novo Nordisk (NVO) as two dominant forces expected to share the market roughly equally. Additionally, they foresee an even distribution of sales between the obesity and diabetes sectors.

The incretin class of drugs, known for suppressing appetite and reducing food intake, is at the heart of this growth. Sales for Eli Lilly’s incretin-based products are projected to jump from $8 billion in the previous year to $23 billion in 2025, $34 billion in 2027, and a massive $50 billion by 2030.

Leading the charge for Eli Lilly is their Mounjaro drug, initially approved for diabetes, which exceeded sales expectations in the recent quarter. Another version of the drug, containing the active compound tirzepatide, is on track for obesity approval later this year.

Highlighting the importance of obesity approval for Mounjaro/tirzepatide, J.P. Morgan analysts earmark it as a vital catalyst for stock performance in the coming years. The bank currently holds an “Overweight” rating for Eli Lilly stocks, setting a target price at $600, indicating a potential 7% growth from its recent valuation.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk has made headlines, surpassing luxury powerhouse LVMH to become Europe’s top-valued company. This accolade followed the UK launch of its weight-loss drug, Wegovy. With a market capitalization now exceeding Denmark’s GDP at $432 billion, it would rank 14th on the U.S.’s S&P 500 list, situating between notable names like UnitedHealth (UNH) and Walmart (WMT).

For context, Eli Lilly, already a heavyweight, occupies the ninth position on the most valuable list, boasting a market cap of $531 billion.

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J.P. Morgan Forecasts Weight-Loss Drug Market at $100 Billion; Eli Lilly Set to Capitalize Significantly.

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