Gevo Posts Record Q3 With $44 Million in Adjusted EBITDA and Raises Its 2026 Outlook Above $90 Million

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) reported record third-quarter revenue of $83.0 million on Tuesday, nearly double the $42.7 million it reported a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $44.1 million, up from $6.7 million. The renewable fuels and carbon company also earned a GAAP profit and raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to more than $90 million. As a result, GEVO shares rose almost 16% to $1.61 in premarket trading Wednesday. Investors still have to judge how much of the quarter will repeat, because about $20 million of revenue came from a one-time sale of banked carbon credits.

Key Points

• Q3 revenue rose 94% to $83.0 million, well ahead of the roughly $56 million consensus.
• Adjusted EPS of $0.12 beat the $0.03 estimate. GAAP net income attributable to Gevo was $22.7 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, compared with an $8.0 million loss a year ago.
• Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $44.1 million, up from $6.7 million, and gross profit rose to $47.8 million from $13.0 million.
• About $29.4 million of revenue came from Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) credits. Roughly $20 million of that was a one-time sale of banked credits.
• Gevo now expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA above $90 million and 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $70 million.

Carbon Credits Drive Gevo (GEVO) to a Record Quarter

Gevo’s carbon business carried the quarter. During the period, the company sold essentially all of its banked CFR credits, which came from low-carbon ethanol it had already shipped into Canada. It also recognized about $10 million in new CFR credits. Together, these credits made up about $29.4 million of revenue.

However, the core business also grew. Gevo North Dakota produced 19 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol in the quarter, up from 17 million a year ago, mainly because maintenance fell at a different time. Excluding the one-time credit sale, revenue still grew about 47% year over year. Meanwhile, the renewable natural gas (RNG) facility produced 91,729 MMBtu, roughly flat with last year.

“The quarter marked our strongest financial performance to date,” said CEO Paul Bloom. He added that the company had promised to “build a carbon business that stands on its own in 2026.” Gevo still expects its carbon business to generate more than $50 million in revenue this year.

Tax Credits Add a Second Revenue Stream

In addition, Gevo has contracted to sell about $70 million of Section 45Z clean fuel production tax credits. These contracts cover substantially all of the credits it expects from 2026 ethanol and RNG production. Gevo also updated its RNG carbon-intensity model, which it expects to add more than $10 million a year in 45Z value once a third party validates it. The company expects 45Z sales to grow in 2027 as its North Dakota capacity increases.

North Dakota Expansion Moves Forward

Gevo’s debottlenecking project in North Dakota is nearly finished. It targets about 75 million gallons a year of low-carbon ethanol capacity and remains on track for year-end 2026. Beyond that, Gevo is working on financing to roughly double ethanol and carbon capture capacity starting in 2028, and it secured long-lead equipment during the quarter. Separately, Project Northstar (ATJ-30) would turn part of the ethanol output into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Gevo is still seeking fixed-price or floor-price SAF offtake contracts and has not given a cost or timeline.

Balance Sheet Reshaped

Gevo ended September with $67.6 million in cash, down from $81.2 million at the end of 2025. During the year, it redeemed all $64.2 million of its bonds and drew $70 million in term loans, which brought loans payable to $167.8 million. The nine-month results also include a $135.8 million impairment and a $40.3 million credit-loss allowance. Together, these drove a $175.9 million net loss for the year to date, despite the strong third quarter.

Investor Takeaway

For Gevo (NASDAQ: GEVO), the quarter shows a business that is now profitable. Ethanol, carbon capture and tax credits are working together, and management raised guidance for both 2026 and 2027. On the other hand, about $20 million of the quarter was non-recurring, and that is why the 2027 outlook of more than $70 million is below this year’s figure. With a market value near $333 million, the next catalysts are the year-end debottlenecking startup, financing for the North Dakota expansion and SAF offtake deals for investors following the PRISM New Energy Index.