Nebius Surges 34% as the ‘Neocloud’ Trade Mints a New AI Winner

Nebius Group (NBIS) delivered one of the most explosive quarters of the earnings season, and investors rewarded it without hesitation. The AI cloud provider grew revenue 454% year-over-year, turned profitable on an adjusted basis for the first time, and locked in a wave of billion-dollar contracts — sending the stock up about 34% to $259.20 on volume roughly 192% above its three-month average. Notably, the print positions Nebius as a breakout winner in the “neocloud” race to supply the raw computing power behind the AI boom.

Key Points

• Revenue soared 454% year-over-year to $582.3 million, topping expectations.
• Nebius reached positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time, marking a profitability inflection.
• The company still posted a GAAP loss of $0.68 per share as it invests aggressively to scale.
• Management maintained full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $7–$9 billion.
• Nebius signed four contracts each worth more than $1 billion, headlined by a Reflection AI deal exceeding $1 billion through 2029.
• The company raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts, up from about 4 GW in May and double its November estimate.

Nebius Group (NBIS) Puts Up Rare Triple-Digit Growth

Nebius grew at a pace almost no company of its size can claim. Revenue surged 454% to $582.3 million, blowing past forecasts and confirming that demand for AI cloud infrastructure keeps accelerating. Consequently, investors piled in, and the stock’s 34% jump on nearly triple its normal volume signaled genuine conviction rather than a fleeting pop.

The rally also lifted the neighborhood. Because Nebius competes in the same “neocloud” arena as names like CoreWeave and Oracle, its blowout print reinforced the bull case for the entire group, and peers rallied in sympathy. As a result, the quarter read less like a one-company story and more like validation of an entire emerging category.

The Land Grab for Power and Contracts

Behind the revenue sits an aggressive expansion. Nebius signed four contracts each worth more than $1 billion in the quarter, anchored by a Reflection AI agreement that exceeds $1 billion through 2029. Moreover, the company raised its year-end contracted-power target to 5 gigawatts — up from roughly 4 GW in May and double its November estimate — a striking measure of how fast it is securing the electricity that AI data centers devour.

That power figure matters as much as the revenue. Because compute capacity increasingly hinges on access to energy, locking in gigawatts today effectively reserves Nebius’s share of tomorrow’s AI demand. Therefore, the contracts and the power guidance together map a company racing to claim ground before rivals can.

Profitability Turns a Corner

For all the spending, Nebius also crossed a meaningful line. The company reached positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time, proving that its core operations can generate profit even as it invests to grow. Even so, it still reported a GAAP loss of $0.68 per share, a reminder that heavy capital spending continues to weigh on the bottom line.

Notably, management held its full-year guidance steady at $7–$9 billion rather than chasing the momentum with a raise. Because that discipline pairs explosive growth with a forecast the company can realistically clear, it echoes the measured stance investors increasingly reward — ambition backed by credibility.

What It Means for Investors

Nebius handed the market a rare combination: hypergrowth, a first taste of profitability, and a contract-and-power land grab that maps years of future demand. Even so, investors should weigh the still-negative GAAP results and the enormous capital intensity required to build AI infrastructure at this scale.

Ultimately, the quarter reframed Nebius from an emerging contender into a proven neocloud leader. For now, the market rewarded the mix of real demand, improving economics, and expansion discipline — sending the stock up 34% and, in the process, minting one of the AI trade’s newest winners.