Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) Jumps 25% as AI Cloud Revenue Explodes 514%

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 Nebius Group (NBIS) blew past second-quarter revenue estimates Wednesday as customers raced to lock up artificial intelligence computing capacity, and investors rewarded the Dutch cloud operator immediately. Shares surged more than 25% to $242.35 by midday, extending a 2026 run that now tops 185%.

Key Points

• Total revenue: $582.3 million, up from $105.1 million a year earlier and ahead of the $569.9 million FactSet consensus.
• AI cloud revenue: Soared 514% to $574.9 million, accounting for 98% of the top line.
• Contract momentum: Four cloud deals closed in Q2, each averaging more than $1 billion in total contract value.
• Unit economics: Those deals yield $20–25 million per megawatt, with upfront payments covering 50–60% of associated capex.
• Bottom line: Net loss of $0.68 per share, far narrower than the $1.46 loss analysts modeled, though down from a $2.38 profit a year ago.
• 2026 guidance: Revenue held at $3.0–3.4 billion, with the midpoint below the Street’s $3.36 billion; capex maintained at $20–25 billion.
• Stock: Up ~25% Wednesday; up ~185% year to date.

Demand Outruns Capacity at Nebius

Growth of this magnitude rarely comes from a single lever, and Nebius pulled two. The company attributed the top-line surge to both expanded capacity and higher pricing — a combination that signals customers are competing for scarce compute rather than shopping on price. Consequently, AI cloud revenue climbed more than sixfold year over year while the legacy business faded to a rounding error.

CEO Arkady Volozh framed the quarter as conversion rather than promise, telling shareholders that exponential demand for AI capacity is turning into contracted, profitable growth. Moreover, the contract structure backs him up: with customers prepaying 50% to 60% of the capital costs tied to each deal, Nebius is effectively financing a meaningful share of its buildout on its clients’ balance sheets.

Why NBIS Still Carries Risk

Nevertheless, two figures deserve scrutiny. First, full-year revenue guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion did not move, and its midpoint sits below the $3.36 billion analysts expect — an unusual stance after a beat of this size. Second, capital expenditures remain pegged at $20 billion to $25 billion for 2026, a staggering number against projected revenue barely above $3 billion.

Management argues the timing gap explains it. CFO Dado Alonso told analysts the company expects to accelerate capacity deployment in the second half, with capacity brought online late in Q2 starting to contribute revenue in the third quarter. In other words, the spending lands first and the revenue follows — which works precisely as long as demand holds.

Heavyweight Backers

Nebius has assembled unusual validation for a company of its size. Earlier this year, it signed an AI infrastructure agreement with Meta Platforms (META) worth up to $27 billion, and it secured a $2 billion investment from Nvidia (NVDA). Together, those relationships give the company both anchor demand and privileged access to the chips that constrain everyone else in the sector.

The Broader Signal

Notably, the entire cloud complex is printing similar numbers. CoreWeave (CRWV) topped estimates Tuesday with revenue more than doubling year over year, while Amazon’s AWS grew 37% to $42.23 billion, Microsoft’s Azure rose 43%, and Alphabet’s Google Cloud jumped 82%.

Therefore, the read-through extends well beyond one Dutch challenger: investors are currently paying up for AI capacity builders even as they punish chipmakers for the same aggressive spending. Whether that divergence persists may prove the defining question of the second half.